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16% chance to face Leipzig, 14% for Barcelona and more: Probability of drawing each possible Champions League opponent

Johnpaul by Johnpaul
December 11, 2020
in Football
0

16% chance to face Leipzig, 14% for Barcelona and more: Probability of drawing each possible Champions League opponent

A fan on Reddit has calculated our chances of drawing each of the 7 possible opponents we could face in the Champions League Round of 16.

Chelsea can face 7 possible opponents in the Champions League Round of 16 after they finished top of their group.

  • Reddit user u/emi_nga calculated the probability of Chelsea facing each of these teams in the next round:
  • Borussia Monchengladbach – 18.62%
  • RB Leipzig – 16.08%
  • Atletico Madrid – 14.48%
  • FC Barcelona – 14.16%
  • Lazio – 13.35%
  • Atalanta – 12.65%
  • Porto – 10.67%

The methodology behind these calculations is: “Basically, some teams can’t encounter others. To simplify, for example, Real Madrid can’t play Barcelona, Atletico, Sevilla, or Monchengladbach.

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“So they have (say…) 25% to face Porto out of 4 teams. But because we can play everyone but Atalanta, we have only 14% chance to meet Porto. Therefore, if you factor every other team in, then you will have all of these odds.”

Who would you like Chelsea to draw in the Round of 16, Blues?

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